Some of us may have noticed that Aviforma's been posting some strange status posts lately:
- Tuesday: "Life on the run!"
- Wednesday: "The Dark Followers told me I'd be safe here, but the Aurorlocks keep searching around here"
- Thursday: "They knocked on the wall with the passage today... did someone tip them off?"
- Friday: "Those footsteps aren't Aurorlocks... I don't think they're human"
I don't have a solid theory about what's going on yet, but I'll try to make some sense of Avi's posts.
I have a theory! I'll add it to the bottom of the post.
Avi's first post is pretty self-explanatory: He's running from the law.
Previously, Avi accidentally admitted over global chat that he murdered Lauren Strudel. This may be the point in the roleplay where the Aurorlocks believe that they have enough evidence to re-arrest Avi (this also implies that the protection of Double Jeopardy does not exist in the Wizarding World). Avi was either tipped off by someone, or heard about it himself.
Avi's second post shows that he was taken in by the Dark Followers, and is hiding in an unknown location. This area seems to be protected, as the Dark Followers said that this location is safe (as far as I know, there have not been any invasions of any Dark Follower base).
Avi's third post shows that his hiding spot is either entered through or contains a hidden passage. He only notes that it is "the wall with the hidden passage", not the entrance. The Aurorlocks knocked on that wall, which shows that they were close discovering him. However, we don't seem to have enough information at the moment to pinpoint the location. He also believes that someone may have tipped him off. This is plausable, as there have been a few revealed traitors in the Dark Follower Allegiance. Again, there is not enough information to prove that he was tipped off. I believe that the Aurorlocks had a lucky guess, but did not explore further. What I find important is that the Aurorlocks were knocking on the walls. This shows that they were checking see if there were any hollow spaces - like hidden passages - behind those walls.
Avi's most recent post tells us that he hears footsteps that are "not human". The fact that he hears footsteps shows that he is either in a hiding spot with thin walls, or is underground. What's strange is that he does not think that the footsteps are human. He most likely knows what human footsteps sound like, so he may not be mistaken. If they truly aren't human footsteps, he may be hearing a creature/creatures that are being sent after him by the Ministry, which they have been known to do before (although this remains a speculation). I can try to narrow down what creature Avi may be hearing. Of course, this creature need feet in order to create footsteps. It is also most likely a land creature, which narrows down any creatures that live in water. It is unknown how many feet this creature has, as we do not know the footstep pattern that Avi heard. I believe that it is most likely a humanoid creature (therefore it also has two feet).
- The creature could be Lauren's ghost. It ties into the roleplay, and would make sense: Lauren was murdered by Avi, and could want revenge; Ghosts have feet, and are known to make noises (whispers/shout, knocking things over). Her ghost could easily replicate footstep noises to torment Avi from beyond the grave.
This also brings up the question if these creatures were what Avi was hearing from the beginning. They could have created the knocking noise he heard on Thursday. Until further information is discovered, this also remains a speculation.
Avi posted this on his wall Sunday:
"The Dark Followers were supposed to bring me supplies today, except all I heard was screaming."
This reaffirms what we already know - Avi is being helped by the Dark Followers.
The Dark Followers apparently have a schedule for resupplying Avi with something, most likely food and water. Their schedule was interrupted by what seems to be an attack of some sort.
Using new information I was given (thank you, Psycho!), it is possible that the creature that was walking around earlier was a werewolf. This werewolf could have attacked the Dark Followers. Werewolves are known to exclusively hunt humans during the full moon, so this may not be too far off (especially because we do not know what time or time of day it is).
There is also the possibility that the place where Avi is hiding was raided by the Aurorlocks, but I think that Avi would have known the difference between an Aurorlock attack versus a creature attack.
[UPDATE]
The rest of the posts I record here will be in chronological order, starting with March 8th:
"It's cold. Hunger wracks my body. I must soon take the risk of venturing outside."
This leads me to believe that Avi is somewhere in Hogsend, where it snows.
This supports the assumption that the non-human footsteps Avi heard were werewolf footsteps, as there is a werewolf shelter in Hogsend.
Avi could either be hiding in the abandoned underground Honeybadger duelling arena (behind the werewolf shelter) or in Honeysweet's hidden(ish) underground tunnel. Although Honeysweet's is farther from the shelter than the duelling arena, it is still possible for werewolves to wander into or near the shop. He could also be in the Haunted Shack, as it has a connection to werewolves, although it may be a bit too far away from the shelter.
Hopefully in a future status post, we can get a description of Avi's surroundings.
"Is it worth the risk?"
It has been one day after Avi contemplated leaving his hiding spot. He is hesitant on leaving, because of the danger of the cold and creature (possibly werewolf) attack.
He will have to leave eventually.
"cold"
Self-explanatory: He left his hideout to go find supplies (most likely food and water).
- It's been a few days since this post, with no new information. Aviforma most likely froze to death.
Another possibility is that he is alive, but we lost communication with him.
If anyone has any information regarding Avi's posts that I missed or anything you think should be added, please let me know!
[Update 2 - Electric Boogaloo]
I have a theory on what's going on!
Aviforma was never imprisoned, but was on the run after the Aurorlocks decided to convict him anyway as revenge. They were planning on capturing Aviforma and sending him to the Dark Prison. We saw that he used his forum account (acting like a notepad or journal) to document his journey. Through this journal, we see that Aviforma was helped by the Dark Followers, and hidden in the Haunted Shack, where it snows (and is cold). Not many people go to the Haunted Shack, because they are scared of the "hauntings" that involve screaming (which are really werewolves during their transformations). There is a (not-so) hidden passage in the Haunted Shack, which leads to the Wicked Willow. The Haunted Shack is near Hogsend, where the Werewolf Shelter is located. Werewolves wandered from the shelter to the Haunted Shack in their search for humans to attack. This explains the non-human footsteps and knocking on the walls. The werewolves were hostile, and trying to attack/kill him. The Dark Followers helping Aviforma were attacked by a werewolf (or possibly a pack of them) on the day they were bringing Aviforma supplies. He had to make the choice to leave his hiding spot to get supplies. Hogsend is near the Haunted Shack, but the snow and cold weather made it hard for Aviforma to walk there, especially because he was weak from lack of food/water (what the supplies the Dark Followers were providing were). He it is implied that he died of hypothermia a short time after he left, as he was unprepared for dealing with snowy/cold conditions.
However, this assumption is incorrect, because Aviforma did not change his name, and is also active on the server (in chat as well). When Lauren Strudel was assassinated, she changed her name.
Aviforma's forum signature is "Freed from the Ministry!
"
This confirms what we already knew: Aviforma was captured by the Ministry, but then broke out.
[4/9/20]
Aviforma posted this on his wall:
"It's been nearly a month since my last post. Something attacked. The cabin is gone. An avalanche hit - giving me just enough time to hide. But the entrance to the cave was destroyed. Now, the only way out is through."
Maddie responded:
"Stay safe. Will send provisions at your earliest convenience."
Aviforma replied to Maddie;
"The Blizzard's too thick. With that thing prowling, nothing could get through."
This correspondence shows that Aviforma is indeed in a snowy place - most likely near/around Hogsend. There's snowy mountainous areas outside of Hogsend and the Haunted Shack. His hideout, a cabin on a mountain/hill, was destroyed, and he is now hidden in a cave. In order to get out, he has to go through the cave, or the snow blocking the entrance.
Aviforma described the possible werewolf as a "thing". This shows that he does not know what it is, and has not seen it. It apparently cannot get to Aviforma, because of the blizzard. However, the snow may hide the creature's footsteps, so Aviforma may not be safe for too long.
This is the first time anyone has commented on Aviforma's wall in regards to these posts.
Maddie is an Aurorlock and a Dark Follower. She is most likely playing the role of a Dark Follower, as she is saying that "we" will bring him more supplies, as the Dark Followers have been doing.
Maddie now knows about the creature that Aviforma is being followed by. We'll have to wait and see if she encounters it at all.
It is possible that the "thing" could be a yeti, instead of a werewolf.
Yetis live in snowy and mountainous regions. They also attack and eat any human they can find. This could be the creature that attacked the Dark Followers who tried to bring Aviforma supplies while he was still in the cabin.
If Aviforma runs into the "thing" and it turns out to be a yeti, his best defense against it would be fire - either using spells that create fire, or waving a torch/stick/something on fire at the yeti.
- Tuesday: "Life on the run!"
- Wednesday: "The Dark Followers told me I'd be safe here, but the Aurorlocks keep searching around here"
- Thursday: "They knocked on the wall with the passage today... did someone tip them off?"
- Friday: "Those footsteps aren't Aurorlocks... I don't think they're human"
I don't have a solid theory about what's going on yet, but I'll try to make some sense of Avi's posts.
I have a theory! I'll add it to the bottom of the post.
Avi's first post is pretty self-explanatory: He's running from the law.
Previously, Avi accidentally admitted over global chat that he murdered Lauren Strudel. This may be the point in the roleplay where the Aurorlocks believe that they have enough evidence to re-arrest Avi (this also implies that the protection of Double Jeopardy does not exist in the Wizarding World). Avi was either tipped off by someone, or heard about it himself.
Avi's second post shows that he was taken in by the Dark Followers, and is hiding in an unknown location. This area seems to be protected, as the Dark Followers said that this location is safe (as far as I know, there have not been any invasions of any Dark Follower base).
Avi's third post shows that his hiding spot is either entered through or contains a hidden passage. He only notes that it is "the wall with the hidden passage", not the entrance. The Aurorlocks knocked on that wall, which shows that they were close discovering him. However, we don't seem to have enough information at the moment to pinpoint the location. He also believes that someone may have tipped him off. This is plausable, as there have been a few revealed traitors in the Dark Follower Allegiance. Again, there is not enough information to prove that he was tipped off. I believe that the Aurorlocks had a lucky guess, but did not explore further. What I find important is that the Aurorlocks were knocking on the walls. This shows that they were checking see if there were any hollow spaces - like hidden passages - behind those walls.
Avi's most recent post tells us that he hears footsteps that are "not human". The fact that he hears footsteps shows that he is either in a hiding spot with thin walls, or is underground. What's strange is that he does not think that the footsteps are human. He most likely knows what human footsteps sound like, so he may not be mistaken. If they truly aren't human footsteps, he may be hearing a creature/creatures that are being sent after him by the Ministry, which they have been known to do before (although this remains a speculation). I can try to narrow down what creature Avi may be hearing. Of course, this creature need feet in order to create footsteps. It is also most likely a land creature, which narrows down any creatures that live in water. It is unknown how many feet this creature has, as we do not know the footstep pattern that Avi heard. I believe that it is most likely a humanoid creature (therefore it also has two feet).
- The creature could be Lauren's ghost. It ties into the roleplay, and would make sense: Lauren was murdered by Avi, and could want revenge; Ghosts have feet, and are known to make noises (whispers/shout, knocking things over). Her ghost could easily replicate footstep noises to torment Avi from beyond the grave.
This also brings up the question if these creatures were what Avi was hearing from the beginning. They could have created the knocking noise he heard on Thursday. Until further information is discovered, this also remains a speculation.
Avi posted this on his wall Sunday:
"The Dark Followers were supposed to bring me supplies today, except all I heard was screaming."
This reaffirms what we already know - Avi is being helped by the Dark Followers.
The Dark Followers apparently have a schedule for resupplying Avi with something, most likely food and water. Their schedule was interrupted by what seems to be an attack of some sort.
Using new information I was given (thank you, Psycho!), it is possible that the creature that was walking around earlier was a werewolf. This werewolf could have attacked the Dark Followers. Werewolves are known to exclusively hunt humans during the full moon, so this may not be too far off (especially because we do not know what time or time of day it is).
There is also the possibility that the place where Avi is hiding was raided by the Aurorlocks, but I think that Avi would have known the difference between an Aurorlock attack versus a creature attack.
[UPDATE]
The rest of the posts I record here will be in chronological order, starting with March 8th:
"It's cold. Hunger wracks my body. I must soon take the risk of venturing outside."
This leads me to believe that Avi is somewhere in Hogsend, where it snows.
This supports the assumption that the non-human footsteps Avi heard were werewolf footsteps, as there is a werewolf shelter in Hogsend.
Avi could either be hiding in the abandoned underground Honeybadger duelling arena (behind the werewolf shelter) or in Honeysweet's hidden(ish) underground tunnel. Although Honeysweet's is farther from the shelter than the duelling arena, it is still possible for werewolves to wander into or near the shop. He could also be in the Haunted Shack, as it has a connection to werewolves, although it may be a bit too far away from the shelter.
Hopefully in a future status post, we can get a description of Avi's surroundings.
"Is it worth the risk?"
It has been one day after Avi contemplated leaving his hiding spot. He is hesitant on leaving, because of the danger of the cold and creature (possibly werewolf) attack.
He will have to leave eventually.
"cold"
Self-explanatory: He left his hideout to go find supplies (most likely food and water).
- It's been a few days since this post, with no new information. Aviforma most likely froze to death.
Another possibility is that he is alive, but we lost communication with him.
If anyone has any information regarding Avi's posts that I missed or anything you think should be added, please let me know!
[Update 2 - Electric Boogaloo]
I have a theory on what's going on!
Aviforma was never imprisoned, but was on the run after the Aurorlocks decided to convict him anyway as revenge. They were planning on capturing Aviforma and sending him to the Dark Prison. We saw that he used his forum account (acting like a notepad or journal) to document his journey. Through this journal, we see that Aviforma was helped by the Dark Followers, and hidden in the Haunted Shack, where it snows (and is cold). Not many people go to the Haunted Shack, because they are scared of the "hauntings" that involve screaming (which are really werewolves during their transformations). There is a (not-so) hidden passage in the Haunted Shack, which leads to the Wicked Willow. The Haunted Shack is near Hogsend, where the Werewolf Shelter is located. Werewolves wandered from the shelter to the Haunted Shack in their search for humans to attack. This explains the non-human footsteps and knocking on the walls. The werewolves were hostile, and trying to attack/kill him. The Dark Followers helping Aviforma were attacked by a werewolf (or possibly a pack of them) on the day they were bringing Aviforma supplies. He had to make the choice to leave his hiding spot to get supplies. Hogsend is near the Haunted Shack, but the snow and cold weather made it hard for Aviforma to walk there, especially because he was weak from lack of food/water (what the supplies the Dark Followers were providing were). He it is implied that he died of hypothermia a short time after he left, as he was unprepared for dealing with snowy/cold conditions.
However, this assumption is incorrect, because Aviforma did not change his name, and is also active on the server (in chat as well). When Lauren Strudel was assassinated, she changed her name.
Aviforma's forum signature is "Freed from the Ministry!
"This confirms what we already knew: Aviforma was captured by the Ministry, but then broke out.
[4/9/20]
Aviforma posted this on his wall:
"It's been nearly a month since my last post. Something attacked. The cabin is gone. An avalanche hit - giving me just enough time to hide. But the entrance to the cave was destroyed. Now, the only way out is through."
Maddie responded:
"Stay safe. Will send provisions at your earliest convenience."
Aviforma replied to Maddie;
"The Blizzard's too thick. With that thing prowling, nothing could get through."
This correspondence shows that Aviforma is indeed in a snowy place - most likely near/around Hogsend. There's snowy mountainous areas outside of Hogsend and the Haunted Shack. His hideout, a cabin on a mountain/hill, was destroyed, and he is now hidden in a cave. In order to get out, he has to go through the cave, or the snow blocking the entrance.
Aviforma described the possible werewolf as a "thing". This shows that he does not know what it is, and has not seen it. It apparently cannot get to Aviforma, because of the blizzard. However, the snow may hide the creature's footsteps, so Aviforma may not be safe for too long.
This is the first time anyone has commented on Aviforma's wall in regards to these posts.
Maddie is an Aurorlock and a Dark Follower. She is most likely playing the role of a Dark Follower, as she is saying that "we" will bring him more supplies, as the Dark Followers have been doing.
Maddie now knows about the creature that Aviforma is being followed by. We'll have to wait and see if she encounters it at all.
It is possible that the "thing" could be a yeti, instead of a werewolf.
Yetis live in snowy and mountainous regions. They also attack and eat any human they can find. This could be the creature that attacked the Dark Followers who tried to bring Aviforma supplies while he was still in the cabin.
If Aviforma runs into the "thing" and it turns out to be a yeti, his best defense against it would be fire - either using spells that create fire, or waving a torch/stick/something on fire at the yeti.
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